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Emergency Notification System

Pender County is pleased to announce our new Emergency Notification System, CodeRed. 
CodeRed enables the Pender County Office of Emergency Management on alert the citizens, of Pender County, of any impending emergency situations in their area.

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Emergency Notification System

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Emergency News
Sep30 Posted: 19 hours ago

 

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM AST FRI SEPT 30 2016

There are no data currently available from the inner core of Matthew, so it is unclear whether the earlier rapid intensification is continuing. A well-defined elliptical eye is seen in data from the Curacao radar. However, the latest satellite imagery shows that the central convection is somewhat asymmetric and that an eye is yet to form. Satellite intensity estimates are 90 kt from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB. Based on continuity from the previous advisory and no improvement in the satellite signature, the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 85 kt. It is notable that the rapid intensification has occurred despite an ongoing 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear.
The initial motion is 265/12. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Matthew should keep it moving westward or south of westward for the next 36 hours with some decrease in forward speed. From 48-120 hours, the ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Matthew to turn northwestward and then northward. There is a significant spread in where the turn will occur and how fast Matthew will move afterwards. The ECMWF and UKMET are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and slower than the other models, while the GFS and Canadian models are to the left of the center of the guidance envelope and much faster. The various consensus models split these differences in both track and speed, and the new forecast track lies close to them. Overall, the new track is a little south of the previous track through 48 hours and a little west of the previous track from 72-120 hours.

The intensity forecast is very problematic. The ongoing shear has so far done little to keep Matthew from intensifying. Despite this, the intensity guidance is in unanimous agreement that the cyclone should weaken from 12-48 hours, most likely due to shear. From 48-96 hours, the shear is expected to diminish, and during that time Matthew is expected to intensify until it interacts with land. The intensity forecast will smooth through what could be some ups and downs in intensity. First, it assumes that the current strengthening will continue for another 12-24 hours, with Matthew reaching major hurricane strength. Then, it keeps the intensity at 100 kt from 24-48 hours, followed by some intensification as the shear lets up. Weakening due to land interaction is forecast after 72 hours. The intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance, but it is less intense than the HWRF model from 72-120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 14.0N 69.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.8N 71.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 13.7N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 13.9N 73.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.5N 74.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 20.5N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER
 

Sep29 Posted: 2 days ago

Matthew is now a Category 1 Hurricane.

Sep29 Posted: 2 days ago

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016

500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

Matthew is currently experiencing 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, with the low level center located near the western edge of the main convective mass.  An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission reported 850 mb flight-level winds of 65-70 kt and estimated surface winds of 50-55kt from the SFMR instrument.  Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55 kt.  The aircraft reported a central pressure of 1002 mb on its last pass through the center.

The initial motion is 275/14.  Matthew is currently on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge.  This feature should steer the storm westward or even south of west during the next 48 hours.  After that time, Matthew is expected to approach the western end of the ridge as a mid- to upper-level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico.  While this combination is expected to cause the cyclone to turn generally northward, there is significant disagreement between the dynamical models on where the turn will occur and how fast Matthew will move northward.  The forecast tract is in best agreement with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean in bringing the center to eastern Cuba by 120 hours, although it is slower than those models.  The Canadian model is a little west of the forecast track.  The ECMWF and UKMET are to the east of the forecast track and much slower, bringing the center to the island of Hispaniola.  Overall, the new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track for the first 72 hours, then is similar to the previous track.  Users are reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240 miles, respectively.

The current shear is likely to gradually diminish during the next 72 hours, and this should allow continued gradual development.  After that time, there is also disagreement in the models regarding the forecast shear, with the GFS showing a more favorable pattern than the ECMWF.  If the GFS upper-level winds are correct, Matthew could strengthen more than currently forecast as shown by the HWFR.  However, given the uncertainty, the new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.ON 64.7W 55KT 65 MPH

12H 29/1800Z 14.1N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

24H 30/0600Z 14.1N 69.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

36H 30/1800Z 13.9N 70.82 70 KT 80 MPH

48H 01/0600Z 13.8N 72.22 75 KT 85 MPH

72H 02/0600Z 14.5N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

96H 03/0600Z 17.5N 75.0W 85KT 100 MPH

120H 04/0600Z 20.5N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

Sep28 Posted: 3 days ago

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the strong tropical wave located near Barbados is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph.  Regardless of whether or not the system becomes a tropical storm before it moves through the Lesser Antilles, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains will spread across Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia today.  Satellite and surface observations suggest that the circulation associated with the system has become better defined, and the reconnaissance aircraft is beginning its mission to determine if a tropical storm has formed.  The system is moving westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph, and is expected to pass over the Lesser Antilles later today, and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Thursday.  Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands should consult products issued by your national meteorological service, including possible tropical storm warnings or watches.  Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South American should also monitor the progress of this disturbance.

 *Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms along the coast of western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a weak low pressure area near Tampico, Mexico.  This low is forecast to move inland later today or tonight and significant development of this system is not expected.  *Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent

*Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

 

 

 
 
Sep21 Posted: 9/21/2016 7:55:00 AM

 

The leak is fixed and should be flowing soon.  It will take approximately three days for fuel to reach North Carolina, and distribution will get back to normal in about five (5) days.

Keep measures in place until we are notified that all is clear and back to normal.

Jun24 Posted: 6/24/2011 7:51:00 AM

InciWeb - Incident Information System for Juniper Road Fire
http://www.inciweb.org/incident/2371/

read more...
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